- Russia’s invasion of Ukraine dampened growth expectations in February. As Russia is such a large commodity exporter, investors were concerned that energy prices could spiral higher, leading to elevated or more persistent inflation that would hit growth.
- The invasion of Ukraine came at a time when investors were already fearing a greater speed and/or size of interest rate rises, but the war saw expectations settle back somewhat towards the end of the month as growth expectations were wound back.
- International shares finished the month down -2.8% (hedged) and -5.5% (unhedged).
- The Australian share market was a relative outperformer gaining 2.1% reflecting the high commodity exposure of the market, a strong shift back from January’s lows.
- Local shares were supported by a lift in commodity prices with gains in resources stocks offsetting weakness in most other sectors.
- Emerging markets fell on rising energy prices, returning -5.8%.
Economic indicators rebalance
- US economic data was mainly positive, with manufacturing conditions rising and employment levels remaining strong.
- China’s business conditions remained soft but possibly stabilising, suggesting growth may have based.
- As expected, Australia saw a rebound in consumer spending reflecting the lift in lockdowns for East coast states and leading economic indicators recovered solidly.
RBA holds
- The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held to its current policy settings at its 1 March meeting.
- Oil prices continued to surge with oil rising above USD 100 a barrel on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
- As investors fled to safety gold prices rose.
Major asset class performance (%)
Asset classes | 1 month | 12 months | 5 years (p.a.) |
Australian shares | 2.1 | 10.2 | 8.6 |
International shares (hedged) | -2.8 | 12.3 | 11.2 |
International shares (unhedged) | -5.5 | 18.3 | 13.5 |
International emerging markets (unhedged) | -5.8 | -4.7 | 8.2 |
International small companies (unhedged) | -2.8 | 6.6 | 10.9 |
Global listed property | -2.9 | 16.4 | 4.8 |
Cash | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.1 |
Australian fixed interest | -1.2 | -1.1 | 2.7 |
International fixed interest | -1.3 | -2.3 | 2.4 |
Source: JP Morgan and IOOF, 28 February 2022.
Indices: Australian shares: S&P/ASX 300 Accumulation | International shares (hedged/unhedged): MSCI World ex Australia Net | International emerging markets: MSCI Emerging Markets Net in AUD (unhedged) | International small companies (unhedged): MSCI World ex Aust Small Cap | Global listed property: FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Rental Index ex Australia (hedged) | Cash: Bloomberg Bank Bill | Australian fixed interest: Bloomberg AusBond Composite 0+ Yr Index | International fixed interest: Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index (hedged).
Please note: Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Currency
Exchange rates | At 28/2/22 | % change in 1 month | % change in 12 months |
AUD/USD | 0.73 | 2.77 | -4.41 |
AUD/Euro | 0.65 | 2.91 | -0.06 |
AUD/Yen | 83.51 | 2.62 | -0.71 |
Trade weighted index | 60.60 | 2.19 | -5.16 |
Source: Bloomberg and IOOF, 28 February 2022. All foreign exchange rates are rounded to two decimal places where appropriate.
Please note: Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Source: https://investmentcentral.ioof.com.au/home/home-article/Market-Watch-February-2022